According to Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran, India's economy will reach $7 trillion by 2030. By March 2023, the GDP of the nation is projected to be $3.5 trillion, and historically during the previous 30 years, despite the depreciation of the rupee, India's dollar-GDP has increased at a rate of 9%. The CEA claimed that there have been instances when the rupee strengthened, and during those times India's GDP grew by double digits.
"So in general, if we take 10 per cent growth rate in dollar terms, the value doubles in seven years. So if India's dollar GDP grows at 10 per cent per annum from April 2023 onwards, it could be a 7 trillion economy by 2030," Nageswaran said while speaking to Business Today’s Managing Editor Siddharth Zarabi.
The CEA replied that economic estimates are conditional statements when asked how certain he was expecting 6.8% growth. He emphasised the significance of the range, noting that the survey itself found that the downside risks to the base-case percentage of 6.5% were marginally greater than the upside risks.
When asked about inflation and when it might decline, the CEA responded that India was generally in a better position.
"India's inflation peaked at 7.8 per cent in April 2022 and since then it has come down and stands at 5.7 per cent in December 2022. Our target range is 2 to 6, so the deviation from the target was not as big as in some of the advanced economies even today," he said. According to Nageswaran, if the global economy slows down and commodity prices are steady in 2023–2024, India's inflation rate will continue to decline and may even fall below 5%, bringing it closer to the middle of the RBI's target range of 2–6%.
